According to Anas Alhajji, Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz is largely rhetorical, as stated in his X post, reducing concerns over oil price spikes. TradingView data shows Brent oil erased early gains to trade at $77, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $76.75, indicating minimal market disruption. ING analysts reported that the market doesn't expect flows to be blocked, lowering stagflation risks. Bitcoin BTC maintained support at $100,430 and rebounded above $101,000, suggesting potential avoidance of a sell-off in risk assets.

According to Anas Alhajji on X, Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are largely rhetorical, leading to muted oil price gains with Brent up only 1.4% as per TradingView data. Bitcoin BTC has rebounded to over $105,000, holding critical support at $100,430, reducing risks of a sell-off amid fading oil spike concerns, which analysts at ING say could have triggered stagflation and hurt risk assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices jumped over 2% at market open in response to US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (Source: @KobeissiLetter, June 22, 2025). Despite the immediate spike, markets are not currently pricing in a prolonged conflict. For crypto traders, short-term volatility in energy markets can translate to increased risk-on behavior for assets like BTC and ETH, as investors seek alternatives amid geopolitical uncertainty. Monitoring correlation between oil price shocks and crypto price action remains crucial for informed trading strategies.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices spiked over 2% at market open following confirmed US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (source: @KobeissiLetter, June 22, 2025). Despite this initial surge, the market response does not reflect expectations of a prolonged conflict. Historically, rising oil prices can drive volatility in global financial markets, often increasing safe-haven demand for assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Traders should monitor energy sector movements and geopolitical developments, as these could lead to increased crypto market activity and sudden shifts in BTC and ETH pricing.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, citing a recent Federal Reserve study, every $10 increase in oil prices can drive U.S. CPI inflation up by 20 basis points. With oil prices having risen approximately $20 since April, traders should anticipate a potential 40 basis point rise in CPI. This uptick in inflation could increase expectations for tighter monetary policy, which historically puts downward pressure on both equity and crypto markets. Crypto traders, especially those holding BTC and ETH, should monitor upcoming CPI reports and energy price trends closely as increased inflation may lead to higher market volatility and impact risk sentiment. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 22, 2025.

According to Fox News, European diplomats have urged Iran to continue nuclear negotiations with the US during their first direct meeting since recent regional strikes. This diplomatic effort aims to de-escalate tensions that have driven volatility in energy and safe-haven asset markets. Crypto traders are closely monitoring these developments as renewed talks could ease geopolitical risk, potentially reducing upward pressure on oil and gold prices and impacting Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as alternative hedges. Source: Fox News, June 20, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a 5.2 magnitude earthquake has struck central Iran, marking the second significant seismic event in the region within a week (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 20, 2025). Traders are closely monitoring the situation as increased regional instability could influence oil prices and, in turn, crypto market sentiment, especially for assets like BTC and ETH that often react to global geopolitical developments. No immediate reports of major infrastructure damage or mining facility impact have surfaced, but market participants should remain alert to potential aftershocks that could disrupt Iran’s energy supply and indirectly affect cryptocurrency mining operations and transaction costs.

According to Fox News, former President Trump is expected to make a decision regarding Iran within the next two weeks if negotiations are possible (Fox News, June 19, 2025). Traders should monitor this geopolitical development closely, as any decision impacting Iranian oil exports could lead to heightened volatility in global oil prices and subsequently influence inflation expectations. Such changes often affect risk sentiment in crypto markets, particularly for major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, as investors adjust portfolios in response to macroeconomic uncertainty. Source: Fox News.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market dynamics show stock market futures declining, typically a sign of escalating geopolitical risk, while gold prices are falling, which usually signals optimism about peace. Meanwhile, oil and natural gas prices are surging, consistent with heightened war concerns, and bond yields are rising, which often happens when investors anticipate economic stability. These conflicting signals may increase volatility in major cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, as crypto assets often respond to macroeconomic uncertainty and shifts in risk sentiment. Traders should closely monitor these cross-asset moves for potential crypto market impacts. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 19, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the current market dynamics present conflicting signals: stock market futures are dropping, oil and natural gas prices are rising, while gold prices and yields are falling, reflecting uncertainty over potential war escalation and peace negotiations (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 19, 2025). For crypto traders, this volatility often translates to increased trading volume and price swings for major cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, as investors hedge against traditional market uncertainty. Traders should monitor these macroeconomic indicators closely, as they historically correlate with sharp crypto price movements, especially during geopolitical crises.

According to @KobeissiLetter, citing data from @Kalshi, the probability of a new US-Iran nuclear deal being reached in 2025 has increased to 47%, despite ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran. Markets are currently pricing in the likelihood of only a short-lived conflict, which is reducing risk premiums in both oil and cryptocurrency markets. Lower geopolitical risk typically supports stability in crypto assets such as BTC and ETH, as traders shift away from safe-haven assets and volatility-driven hedges (source: @KobeissiLetter, @Kalshi, June 18, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, despite escalating military actions between Israel and Iran, heightened US involvement in the Middle East, and public statements from Donald Trump regarding Iran’s Supreme Leader, oil prices are down 10% from last week’s high (source: @KobeissiLetter, June 17, 2025). This divergence suggests market participants may anticipate limited supply disruption or expect diplomatic resolutions. For crypto traders, the unexpected stability in oil markets may reduce short-term risk-off sentiment, limiting safe-haven flows into BTC and ETH while keeping volatility moderate in the broader cryptocurrency markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices have increased by 1.4% despite President Trump publicly denying all reports about proposing an Iran peace deal. Current market sentiment suggests that fears of heightened geopolitical conflict, such as a potential World War 3 scenario, are unfounded. The moderate climb in oil prices reflects market expectations of a possible diplomatic resolution. For crypto traders, this development indicates reduced immediate risk of macroeconomic shocks, which often trigger volatility in major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH. As oil prices stabilize, institutional and smart money flows into digital assets may remain steady, supporting ongoing crypto market resilience (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 17, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices increased by 1.4% following President Trump's denial of all reports suggesting he proposed an Iran peace deal (source: @KobeissiLetter, June 17, 2025). Despite market concerns, there is no indication of escalating conflict, with smart money signaling a potential diplomatic resolution. For cryptocurrency traders, these stable oil market conditions reduce the likelihood of extreme volatility in energy-related tokens and maintain a risk-on environment for BTC and ETH, as oil shocks often drive flight to safety within digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices increased by only 1.5% after President Trump called for an immediate evacuation of Tehran, indicating that oil markets are pricing in a brief conflict (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 16, 2025). For cryptocurrency traders, this muted response suggests limited spillover volatility into digital asset markets such as BTC and ETH. Monitoring cross-asset correlations remains essential, as further escalation could drive risk-off sentiment and impact crypto prices.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump instructed all individuals to evacuate Tehran immediately, causing oil prices to rise by only 1.5% (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 16, 2025). Despite the geopolitical tension, oil markets appear to be pricing in only a short-term conflict. For traders, the limited price reaction suggests that market participants expect no significant disruption to global oil supply chains. Crypto traders should watch for potential volatility spillover into Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) markets, as oil price movements often influence risk sentiment and capital flows across commodities and cryptocurrencies.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the current proximity of the S&P 500 to its all-time high suggests that markets are not pricing in a significant risk of global conflict. The Kobeissi Letter highlights that if there were even a 50% chance of World War 3, the S&P 500 would be down more than 30%, gold would be trading above $5,000 per ounce, and oil would be priced above $100 per barrel (Source: @KobeissiLetter on Twitter, June 16, 2025). For traders, this analysis indicates that current market sentiment remains risk-on, with traditional safe havens like gold and oil not reflecting crisis levels. Cryptocurrency markets, especially BTC, often mirror risk sentiment in equities. Therefore, the ongoing strength in the S&P 500 may continue to support a bullish environment for major cryptocurrencies, barring any new geopolitical shocks.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, stock market futures rose sharply this morning while oil prices reversed a previous 6% rally, coinciding with emerging headlines that Iran is ready to give up uranium. This follows earlier indications from the market that a peace deal may be imminent. Such geopolitical developments can reduce risk premiums in traditional assets and may lead to increased risk appetite among investors, potentially benefiting major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH as capital flows back into higher-risk assets. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, June 16, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, U.S. stock market futures jumped sharply while oil prices reversed a previous 6% rally after news broke that Iran is reportedly ready to give up uranium enrichment in ongoing peace negotiations (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 16, 2025). This swift market response signals that traders are pricing in reduced geopolitical tensions, which traditionally support risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Lower oil prices and the potential for a de-escalation in the Middle East could reduce market volatility, providing a more favorable environment for crypto trading and potentially boosting sentiment for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other major digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices have not only erased all overnight gains but have turned negative, even as some of Iran’s largest oil and gas facilities are reported destroyed and shut down (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 16, 2025). This unexpected market reaction suggests traders may be pricing in alternate supply routes or anticipating muted long-term disruption. For crypto traders, this resilience in oil markets could indicate broader risk appetite stability, potentially supporting BTC and ETH as macro volatility remains contained.